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Don’t worry: ‘Panicology’ is the antidote for a panic-stricken world

Wonder why the authors of “Panicology” (Skyhorse Publishing, $22.95) sipped cold ones while cataloging calamities that could lead to the planet’s ruin?

Maybe for mirth or thirst. Certainly not because of panic over swine flu or anything like a meteorite crashing into Earth.

“We were sitting around ranting about the latest scare over a beer,” Simon Briscoe says during a telephone interview from London. “I can’t even remember what it was, so many scares come and go. We’re meant to enjoy life. We’re not meant to wrap ourselves in cotton and wool and sit in our house waiting to die. That’s not the point of life.”

Even when swine flu is still spreading? Especially now, he says.

“I’m not advocating that we lead reckless lives,” Briscoe says. “Hand-washing is a good idea at any time, and I wish people would put their hands over their nose when they sneeze or cough when I’m on an airplane or bus. But let’s not cancel our travel plans unnecessarily or frighten our children.”

Briscoe and fellow Brit Hugh Aldersey-Williams combine statistics from news sources and government reports with their own analysis to take a rational look at many of today’s fears, including those regarding frightening viruses such as H1N1. Neither writer is a scientist or academic. Briscoe is a statistician for The Financial Times. Aldersey-Williams studied natural sciences at St. John’s College in Cambridge.

They cover 40 possible areas for possible panic — from natural disasters to obesity levels to endemic viruses to not having enough sex — to help readers sort out what is worth worrying about from the silliness.

At the end of each topic, they use a 5-point scale to show how each threat is perceived in three ways: the media portrayal (panic equals running chickens), how real the authors feel the threat is (risk equals rolling the dice), and how much people can do about it (empowerment equals raised fists). The highest level is 5.

The scare over swine flu, or H1N1, started after the book’s publication, but other viruses are covered under the heading “A Dead Duck,” and none received a high risk rating. Bird flu “has yet to claim a single human victim in Europe or the Americas, and has killed fewer than 300 people worldwide.” Though the panic level was 5, the bird flu virus, H5N1, scored a 2 for risk.

“Unless the pandemic is a strain of virus that is highly infective and highly pathogenic, it may not be dangerous on a global level,” they write.

Curious worriers can take heart. Only six topics got the highest risk rating: overpopulation, antibiotic-resistant bacteria, indebtedness, high house prices, effect of globalization on the workplace and freak weather. Global warming got a rating of 4.

The final chapter gives readers 15 tools for reducing panic by approaching life as skeptics.

Among the tips: Don’t believe words such as “inevitable” or “overdue;” ask who has made a statement and why the person has done this; and ask if you’ve been told the whole story. And remember the big picture, they write, noting it’s bad if 100 people die of bird flu, but in a country of 50 million, that is very few.

“The world is a safer place than it’s ever been,” Briscoe says. “We’re living longer on average than we ever have before. All we need to do is try to stack the odds a little bit in our favor, do look left and right before you cross the road because that’s a good thing to do, but don’t worry about traffic so much that you never go anywhere.”

If panic does strike, understand that it can force anyone — even the levelheaded — to their knees at times.

Briscoe says that even though the authors gave sudden infant death syndrome a relative low-level risk of 2, “that never stopped me from looking in on my children. We all have our issues.” And if SIDS concerns you, the National Center for Health Statistics reports the SIDS death rate dropped from 151 cases per 100,000 children in 1979 to 55 cases per 100,000 in 2004.