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Surge troops may leave Iraq in late summer

TALLIL AIR BASE, Iraq — Gen. George Casey, the top American commander in Iraq, said Friday that some of the extra troops President Bush ordered to Baghdad could begin leaving by late summer if conditions allow.

“I think it’s probably going to be the summer, late summer, before you get to the point where people in Baghdad feel safe in their neighborhoods,” Casey told reporters at a news conference with visiting Defense Secretary Robert Gates.

Asked how long the 21,500 extra U.S. troops are likely to be kept in Iraq, Casey replied, “I believe the projections are late summer.”

Gates’ visit here — his second since replacing Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld last month — was not announced in advance. It comes as the Bush administration begins a new phase in the war including a troop buildup that has encountered widespread opposition in Congress, a reshuffling of Mideast commanders and diplomats, and intensified military pressure on Iran.

Gates immediately went into talks with U.S. commanders and their allied counterparts amid the burgeoning war policy debate in the U.S.

The first group of extra troops — a brigade of the 82nd Airborne Division — has just arrived in Baghdad, and Gates said it was too early to predict how Bush’s plan for quelling the sectarian violence in the capital will work. Four other brigades are to be sent to Iraq between now and May, assuming the Iraqis follow through on their commitment to bring three additional Iraqi army brigades into Baghdad and to allow raids against all illegal militias.

Asked how the Iraqi government was doing to meet its commitments, Casey said, “So far, so good.”

Casey stressed that it was too early to say with confidence how long the U.S. military will have to maintain a higher troop level in Baghdad and western Anbar province. But he sounded an optimistic note.

“You’re going to see some progress gradually over the next 60 to 90 days,” he said.

Casey is being replaced soon by Lt. Gen. David Petraeus, although the timing is uncertain. Casey has been nominated to become the next Army chief of staff, but he has not yet been confirmed in that job by the Senate.

“It will be late summer before we see the results that would cause us to make some decisions like that,” Casey added, referring to the prospect of reducing the overall size of the American force, which stood at 132,000 troops at the time Bush announced he was sending reinforcements.

The troop buildup is scheduled to unfold in phases, with the full contingent of five extra brigades not in place until May.