Gen.: Death rate may be headed back to normal - Marine Corps News | News from Afghanistan & Iraq - Marine Corps Times

Gen.: Death rate may be headed back to normal

BAGHDAD — The number of U.S. troops killed in Iraq has dropped sharply so far in July after reaching record levels in recent months, a possible sign that militants are weakening, the No. 2 U.S. commander in Iraq said Thursday.

“This is what we thought would happen once we took control of the safe havens” used by insurgents and militias, Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno said Thursday. “We’ve now taken control of those areas.”

Though he called the drop in U.S. deaths an “initial positive sign,” Odierno cautioned, “I need a bit more time to see if it’s a true trend or not.”

The Pentagon has reported 61 U.S. troop deaths in combat and non-combat incidents from July 1 through Thursday — a rate that projects to a death toll of 70 to 80 troops by the end of the month.

That would signal a return to average casualty levels seen prior to April, May and June, when an average of 110 troops died per month in the deadliest three-month stretch of the entire war.

The unusually heavy toll in the spring followed an increase in U.S. troop levels — who now number about 154,000 — and more aggressive tactics after a new security plan began in mid-February.

“We were going into areas we hadn’t been before,” Odierno told reporters.

The recent decline in U.S. deaths may result from increased cooperation from Iraqis who report suspected militant activity, said Dennis McBride, executive director of the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies in suburban Washington.

“We may be approaching a tipping point in terms of snitching,” McBride said. “It can become not only OK to snitch, it can become your duty to snitch.”

The July death toll also has been inflated by an unusually large number of non-combat deaths. Of the 61 deaths reported so far in July, 51 resulted from combat and 10 from non-combat incidents such as vehicle accidents — a rate that could produce about 60 combat deaths by the end of the month.

From April to June, there was an average of 104 combat deaths per month, Pentagon figures show.

“The troop surge is being effective,” McBride said, referring to the increased number of U.S. forces.

Retired Army Special Forces Maj. Andy Messing, executive director of the National Defense Council Foundation in Alexandria, Va., said insurgents and militia members may be simply hiding out during the ongoing offensive.

“We show up in greater force, and they reduce their presence and wait until we’re worn down,” Messing said.