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Marines trumpet success in Anbar, plan next moves

With the Corps’ mission in Iraq’s Anbar province all but stamped with the seal of success, Commandant Gen. James Conway is again positioning his service to take on a larger role in fighting a resurgent Taliban in Afghanistan, where about 3,500 Marines have fought throughout much of 2008.

The handoff of Iraqi provisional control over Anbar occurred during the first week of September, with the 28,000-strong Anbar police force and the Iraqi military officially assuming responsibility for securing the North Carolina-sized province.

But the Corps’ success this year in “manhandling the Taliban” in Afghanistan, coupled with Conway’s desire to drive Afghan insurgents into mountain starvation and a host of other military and political conditions, means more Marines could be destined to battle the emerging threat there.

“Young Marines join our Marine Corps to go and fight,” Conway said. “They are doing a very good job of this nation-building business, but it’s our view that if there is a stiffer fight somewhere else ... that’s where we need to be.”

That soon could mean trading tea in Karmah and quiet combat outposts across Fallujah for humping mountainous badlands and protecting the lush river valleys of southern Afghanistan, where al-Qaida, the Taliban and a stream of foreign fighters are spoiling for a fight.

A fragile peace

The Corps has reason to boast of its success in Anbar, a region once considered lawless and host to several urban battles likely to be studied for generations.

Fallujah I, the April 2004 response to the brutal slaying of four Blackwater USA contractors, and its robust sequel seven months later highlighted Anbar as one of the most perilous regions not just in Iraq, but in the world. During Fallujah II, which involved elements from the 1st and 7th Marine regiments, Marines fought through some of the toughest urban combat since Vietnam. April and November 2004 remain the two deadliest months for U.S. troops in Iraq.

The 2006 battle for the Anbar capital of Ramadi was also devastating.

It was there that Master-at-Arms 2nd Class (SEAL) Michael A. Monsoor earned the Medal of Honor for smothering a grenade with his body, while scores of Marines and soldiers perished wresting control of the city from insurgents.

After those struggles, two factors turned Anbar, Conway said.

One was the Marines’ persistence in building trust with the local Sunni population, which came with a heavy price. On June 26, Lt. Col. Max A. Galeai, Capt. Philip J. Dykeman and Cpl. Marcus W. Preudhomme were killed by a suicide bomber during a meeting with tribal sheiks, days ahead of the originally scheduled handover of security control. Galeai was the commander of 2nd Battalion, 3rd Marines.

Iraqi dissent toward the terrorists, fueled by their wanton bombing campaign focused on civilians, has also swayed locals toward the Marines.

Today, the top Marine officer in Iraq said Fallujah and Ramadi are models of calm and stability.

“I would compare the level of violence in Ramadi and Fallujah to be lower than American cities of the same size,” Maj. Gen. John F. Kelly, commanding general of Multi-National Force-West, said in an Aug. 26 telephone interview.

Kelly said there are roughly 16 “events” a week in Anbar, many of which can be attributed to criminal activity rather than terrorism. Conway boasted of about two to three attacks a week in Anbar and of driving virtually unnoticed down the province’s streets.

Kelly said the al-Qaida-led insurgency in Anbar has been stripped of its boldness and reduced to a loosely organized group still capable of inflicting damage with suicide bombings and guerilla ambushes but a far less deadly foe for the Marines.

Now Iraqi police patrol the cities, leaving Marines to hunt terrorists in Anbar’s sprawling hinterlands.

“We’re very active now,” Kelly said. “Our Marines are out hunting down the most dangerous men on the planet. But they are the last remaining elements of al-Qaida in Iraq.”

With large parts of the Anbar-based Iraqi army fighting in different parts of the country, increased responsibility is falling on the police to secure the tenuous peace.

A compressed training schedule has helped boost the number of officers on the streets from 5,000 in 2005 to nearly 30,000 now, Kelly said. And they’re increasingly applying more sophisticated techniques needed not just to patrol neighborhoods and track terrorists, but to investigate crimes and prosecute criminals through the courts.

“Are they perfect? No, they are not,” Kelly said. “Are they good enough? They certainly are, and we are still partnered with them across the region.”

Kelly stressed that Marines are poised on the outskirts of cities to aid the fledgling security services, a situation Conway contends can’t last forever. He recalled a recent conversation with Anbar leaders about security.

“They said ‘We’ve got it. We can handle it. But we love your Marines and want you to stay as long as you can be here. You are our best friend,’ ” Conway said. “Obviously, we can’t have it both ways.”

Despite the continuing challenges, Conway was steadfast about the need to draw down Marines in Anbar.

“I think it should be readily evident that the force that we needed in 2005 and 2006 to fight the insurgency is not the force that we need there to try to bring the government and the Sunnis back together,” Conway said. “I think, in time, there is going to have to be a relative drawdown. I do know that 25,000 Marines in the province are probably an excessive need.”

But success in Iraq may have prompted regression in Afghanistan, where many contend that terrorist groups have refocused their efforts.

In July, the death toll in Afghanistan topped the number of coalition dead in Iraq for the first time. The Corps’ so-called “Long War” has shifted.

The rising threat

Conway anticipated the Corps’ predicament when the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit and 2nd Battalion, 7th Marines, deployed to Afghanistan this spring, to provide a surge of forces there.

“I said, with all due respect ... ‘let me predict something: Commanders will fall in love with the Marines because they will do a great job,’ ” Conway said. “There will be a request for an extension. There will be requests to replace them with other Marines.”

The Marines were, in fact, extended. And if new Marines are to fall in behind those slated to depart in November, a decision would have to be made soon.

That could come in a variety of forms. The 26th MEU departed North Carolina in August for an undisclosed location in the Middle East, while the 13th MEU is slated to push out of Southern California in January.

Army Gen. David Petraeus, incoming commander of U.S. Central Command, is slated to announce this month whether security gains in Iraq warrant increased withdrawals. A change in who occupies the White House come January could also factor into the decision.

Additionally, increasing pressure from the Iraqi government to force America’s hand in inking a deal to redeploy the majority of its troops from Iraq is certain to contribute to the calculus.

The bloodiest year in Afghanistan since the 2001 toppling of the Taliban has translated into just the opposite situation, with a U.S.-led NATO coalition pointing fingers over unequal distribution of responsibility and which members will provide additional combat forces.

“Everyone seems to agree that additional forces are the ideal course of action for preventing a Taliban comeback,” Conway said. “But just, ‘Where are they to come from?’ is up for discussion.”

The need is urgent, as the death toll for civilians and coalition troops is rising fast. This summer alone, dozens were killed in a car bomb attack on the Indian embassy in Kabul, while nine U.S. soldiers died in an insurgent attempt to overrun an isolated mountain outpost, and 10 French troops died in a Taliban ambush.

The Marines in Afghanistan have suffered 18 fatalities this year, eight less than a far greater number of troops serving in Anbar, but Conway contends Marines have inflicted far more punishment on the Taliban. He also argues that Anbar-like success demands continuity.

Carter Malkasian, director of stability and development at the Center for Naval Analyses, said some Anbar lessons are applicable to Afghanistan.

“Protecting the population, setting up outposts, getting out of one’s vehicle and going to patrol is even more important in Afghanistan than it was in Iraq,” Malkasian said. “Taking care of the population and making sure they are secure is more important than almost anything else.”

But vast differences exist between the two theaters.

Iraq is far more secular, modern and urban. The division between Shiite and Sunni is not as pronounced in Afghanistan, but ethnic conflicts between the majority Pashtun and minority sects can create friction, Malkasian said.

While Iran has been accused of supporting Shiite insurgents in Iraq, Pakistan has been charged with not doing enough to stem the flow of foreign fighters from crossing into Afghanistan along its porous border.

The Pakistan predicament remains central to the conflict in Afghanistan, and increased violence there raises the specter for further difficulties where Marines fight. Conway was originally slated to visit the nation during his recent trip to the region, but he opted to forgo the stop because of political and security considerations.

“Pakistan is a tough nut to crack. It’s going to require the Pakistanis to resolve the problem,” he said.

For now, Conway contends the Marines are poised to employ a strategy inspired by the French-backed counterinsurgency campaign in Algeria, forcing the insurgents out of the cities and into the badlands.

“Sooner or later they get hungry. They starve to death,” he said. “Not a lot of things to grow on those rocky bluffs.”

Anbar: a timeline Significant events in Anbar province since the beginning of the Iraq invasion in 2003:

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008